HOUSING INDICATORS I use five basic indicators to look at to gauge the health of the market: 1) Average price, 2) Number of homes sold, 3) Days on market, 4) Inventory, and 5) Short sales and foreclosures. I will update these numbers in a month or so when year end data are available. In this post, you will find all of these indicators plus provide some data by Frederick County ZIP Code shown in Chart H.
SUMMARY FREDERICK COUNTY: As of October 2016,
- PRICE - The year-to-date (YTD) average sold price for all Frederick County homes rose 1.9% over last year, coming in at $302,320. Shown by home type, the average prices for October 2016 look like this: detached homes: $365,743; townhouses: $254,421; and condos: $183,302. Chart B below shows the average home price by type for a two year period.
- NUMBER OF SALES - The total sales, YTD were 3,645, which is 13% higher than in the total for 2015. Annual number of homes sold has been rising steadily since 2012. See Chart C.
- DAYS ON MARKET - The average number of days a home stayed on the market (DOM) until getting a contract was 72 throughout the year. Up 2 days from the previous year. This has varied a lot over the past 10 years. See Chart D.
- INVENTORY - Inventory can be tricky to understand. It is not simply the number homes on the market, but is a ratio of the number of homes for sale compared to the number of homes just sold. This is an indicator of the number of active buyers and yields a number that tells you how many months it would take to clear out all the currently available inventory.Inventory is 3. 4 months. This means that it would take 3.4 months to clear out all inventory given the current number of homes sold. 3.4 is somewhat low, as 6 months is considered average. Inventory has hovered below 5 months since 2012. See Chart E.
- SHORT SALES AND FORECLOSURES - The Frederick County housing market also contains a percentage of short sales and foreclosures and
it's good to keep an eye on those numbers. As of October 2016, about 3.6%
of home sales were Short Sales, down slightly (.6) over last year. The number of Foreclosures dropped 2.4% , and are now around 12%.
See Chart F. Chart G shows the 10 year trend in Frederick County for Short Sales and Foreclosures.
Chart B - Average Home Price by Frederick City, MD ZIP Codes - YTD October 2016
Chart C - Number of Homes Sold in Frederick County, MD - 10 Year Trend
Chart D - Average Days On Market in Frederick County, MD - 10 Year Trend
Chart E - Housing Inventory in Frederick County, MD - 10 Year Trend
Chart F: Percentage of Total Sales Which Are Foreclosures and Shortsales in Frederick County, MD ZIP Code - YTD October 2016
Chart G: Foreclosures and Shortsales in Frederick County, 10 Year Trend as of October 2016
Chart H: Average Home Price by Frederick County, MD ZIP Code - YTD October 2016
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